DISMANTLING UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH RAINFALL PROJECTION USING STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING TECHNIQUES UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
Sr No:
Page No:
34-43
Language:
English
Authors:
MeeluBari Barinua Tsaro Kpang*, Iniubong Etim Ansa, Rogers Ibifubara Wilcox
Received:
2025-08-28
Accepted:
2025-09-16
Published Date:
2025-09-20
Abstract:
Downscaling is a quantitative way of relating the large-scale climatic predictor
variables to the local scale meteorological variables to overcome the ineffectiveness of the GCM
model output. However, despite the high relevance and sophistication of this new method in
climatological studies, the results are not completely free of uncertainties. The aim of the study
was to assess the level of uncertainties associated with rainfall projection using statistical
downscaling techniques under climate change scenarios over the south-south region, Nigeria.
The expost-facto research design was adopted for the study while the quadrat sampling
technique was used to determine the sample size by stratifying the area into 2° x 2° latitude and
longitude intersections and each weather station that fall within the grids (Asaba, Warri, Uyo and
Port Harcourt) was calibrated and selected for the study. Data used for this study were mainly
secondary data and it includes 30 years rainfall data (1985-2015) which was acquired from the
archives of Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and large-scale predictors assessed from
the archives of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The Multiple
Regression Analysis was used in the selection of large-scale predictors with strong relationship
with the predictand. Consequently, shum, rhum, r850, r500, p5_u, p_u, & p5th were selected as
the principal large-scale predictors of rainfall in the area. On the other hand, Wilcoxon signed
rank test was employed to perform the uncertainty analysis and the results shows uncertainty
associated with rainfall projections in the area at P<0.05 in some of the months. The validation
process reveals R and RMSE ranging between, R (0.64-0.91) and RMSE (0.11-0.43) indicating a
better performance of the model on seasonal timescale particularly in Asaba at DJF, Warri in
JJA while Port Harcourt and Uyo in SON. Based on the findings of the study, development of a
local climate management system in preparedness for climate change, climate change planning
and policy formuations and committed efforts to maintain B2 scenario with reduced GHG‟s
emission were recommended.
Keywords:
Uncertainties, Projection, Rainfall, Scenarios, Climate Change.