International Research and Academic scholar society

Public Sector Accounts and its Economic Implications: Historical Analysis on Trends and Elasticity


Sr No:
Page No: 74-86
Language: English
Authors: Stephen Oghenevwede*1, Erhijakpor Andrew E. O.2
Affiliation: 1*Department of Banking and Finance, Delta State University, Abraka, 2Professor of Finance & Development, Department of Banking and Finance, Delta State University, Abraka
Received: 2026-05-03
Accepted: 2026-06-12
Published Date: 2026-06-25
GoogleScholar: Click here
Abstract:
This study examined public sector accounts and their economic implications through a historical analysis of trends and elasticity in Nigeria. GDP growth rate (GDPGR) served as the dependent variable, while tax-to-GDP ratio (TAX/GDP), public debt-to-GDP ratio (DEBT/GDP), capital expenditure ratio (CAPEX/GDP), recurrent expenditure ratio (RECEX/GDP), and interest payment-to-revenue ratio (INTPAY/REV) constituted the explanatory variables. Inflation rate (INF), exchange rate (EXR), and foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP (FDI) were incorporated as control variables. The study adopted an expost facto research design and utilized annual time-series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Annual Reports and Statistical Bulletins, National Bureau of Statistics publications, World Bank databases, and International Monetary Fund databases. Descriptive and econometric techniques were employed in the analysis. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach was adopted to estimate both short-run and long-run relationships among the variables. The findings revealed that TAX/GDP exerted a negative and statistically insignificant effect on GDPGR in both the short run and long run. Similarly, DEBT/GDP had a negative but statistically insignificant influence on GDPGR. Conversely, CAPEX/GDP demonstrated a positive and statistically significant effect on GDPGR in both the short run and long run. RECEX/GDP also exerted a positive and significant effect on GDPGR. Likewise, INTPAY/REV significantly and positively influenced GDPGR. Additionally, the Error Correction Term coefficient indicated that approximately 106.47 percent of short-run disequilibrium was corrected within one period. The study concluded that public sector accounts remained important determinants of economic growth in Nigeria, although their effects varied across fiscal components. It recommended improvements in tax administration, prudent debt management, increased prioritization of capital expenditure, efficient management of recurrent expenditure, and strengthened fiscal transparency to promote sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.
Keywords: Public Sector Accounts, historical trend, tax, GDP, capital, recurrent, expenditure, debt, revenue.

Journal: IRASS Journal of Economics and Business Management
ISSN(Online): 3049-1320
Publisher: IRASS Publisher
Frequency: Monthly
Language: English

Public Sector Accounts and its Economic Implications: Historical Analysis on Trends and Elasticity