Public Sector Accounts and its Economic Implications: Historical Analysis on Trends and Elasticity
Sr No:
Page No:
74-86
Language:
English
Authors:
Stephen Oghenevwede*1, Erhijakpor Andrew E. O.2
Affiliation:
1*Department of Banking and Finance, Delta State University, Abraka, 2Professor of Finance & Development, Department of Banking and Finance, Delta State University, Abraka
Received:
2026-05-03
Accepted:
2026-06-12
Published Date:
2026-06-25
Abstract:
This study examined public sector accounts and their economic implications
through a historical analysis of trends and elasticity in Nigeria. GDP growth rate (GDPGR)
served as the dependent variable, while tax-to-GDP ratio (TAX/GDP), public debt-to-GDP ratio
(DEBT/GDP), capital expenditure ratio (CAPEX/GDP), recurrent expenditure ratio
(RECEX/GDP), and interest payment-to-revenue ratio (INTPAY/REV) constituted the
explanatory variables. Inflation rate (INF), exchange rate (EXR), and foreign direct investment
as a percentage of GDP (FDI) were incorporated as control variables. The study adopted an expost facto research design and utilized annual time-series data sourced from the Central Bank of
Nigeria Annual Reports and Statistical Bulletins, National Bureau of Statistics publications,
World Bank databases, and International Monetary Fund databases. Descriptive and
econometric techniques were employed in the analysis. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag
(ARDL) approach was adopted to estimate both short-run and long-run relationships among the
variables. The findings revealed that TAX/GDP exerted a negative and statistically insignificant
effect on GDPGR in both the short run and long run. Similarly, DEBT/GDP had a negative but
statistically insignificant influence on GDPGR. Conversely, CAPEX/GDP demonstrated a
positive and statistically significant effect on GDPGR in both the short run and long run.
RECEX/GDP also exerted a positive and significant effect on GDPGR. Likewise,
INTPAY/REV significantly and positively influenced GDPGR. Additionally, the Error
Correction Term coefficient indicated that approximately 106.47 percent of short-run
disequilibrium was corrected within one period. The study concluded that public sector
accounts remained important determinants of economic growth in Nigeria, although their
effects varied across fiscal components. It recommended improvements in tax administration,
prudent debt management, increased prioritization of capital expenditure, efficient management
of recurrent expenditure, and strengthened fiscal transparency to promote sustainable economic
growth in Nigeria.
Keywords:
Public Sector Accounts, historical trend, tax, GDP, capital, recurrent, expenditure, debt, revenue.